# Explaining a move is not predicting one

> A variable can explain most of a price move as it happens and forecast almost nothing about the next one.

Building block · Testing whether an edge is real · found 2026-10-02 · by John Kingola

## What I was looking for

Whether order-flow imbalance, which explains most of a BTC move, can predict the next one.

## What I found

Microstructure results are reported over the same interval because that is where they are strong. Read as signals, they look like huge edges.

Replicating Cont, Kukanov and Stoikov on BTC perpetuals, order-flow imbalance explained 47–61% of one-second price variance. On the next second it explained 1.1–3.1%: significant, but the top decile moved 1.0–2.6 USDT per BTC against 86.6 of taker fees.

## The move

I test the next interval against the fee hurdle, never the same interval.

Web version: https://kingola.dev/notes/explaining-is-not-predicting/