# One regime is one data point

> A result measured in one market regime says nothing about the next, and the sample itself can't tell you.

Building block · Reading risk · found 2026-09-23 · by John Kingola

## What I was looking for

Whether a result from one session, or one half-year, holds in the next.

## What I found

A caveat that is written down but never tested tends to become permanent.

My order-flow study covered one afternoon of one trading day, and even inside it the 120-second markout drifted from 0.564¢ to 0.253¢ to −0.149¢ by the hour. The strategy rebuilds later showed the same thing at scale: only 33% of setups that worked from January to June still worked from July to October.

## The move

I name the regime a result came from, and treat "test another regime" as a task, not a caveat.

Web version: https://kingola.dev/notes/single-regime-evidence/