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NotesTesting whether an edge is real

A gate must beat no gate

To know what a signal adds, run the same rules without it. A signal that can't beat its own absence adds nothing.

What I was looking for

Whether a liquidity-void entry signal added anything beyond the exits and fees around it.

What I found

A strategy's P&L mixes the entry signal with the exits, the fees and the market's drift. Judged against zero, a winner looks like a working signal even when the exits or a rising market did the work.

In the Liquidity Engine, entering only on a liquidity-void revisit lost −4,580 per trip against −4,693 for ungated cyclers with identical exits. Indistinguishable. The registered test failed, and the comparison said why.

The move

Every filter or entry signal I test gets a control: the same exits, fees and fills, with the signal removed.